Betting odds plunge as McConnell's 80-day absence continues

Betting platform Kalshi reports that the probability of Senator Mitch McConnell leaving his seat before the November 3 elections has fallen to seven percent, a steep decline from a February peak of 48.8 percent. The market’s shift follows multiple health incidents, including a hospital stay in February and another in July that briefly raised resignation odds to 34.8 percent before a July 12 photograph suggested he plans to stay in office.

Since then, the odds have continued to drop, reaching a low of six percent on August 25. McConnell’s office, overseen by chief of staff Terry Carmack, has repeatedly clarified that he did not suffer a heart attack or stroke, despite a 911 call mentioning cardiac arrest. The senator has been discharged from both hospital and rehabilitation facilities but remains absent from Senate work and has not spoken on camera. Public updates have been limited to a few statements and photos showing him with his wife, Elaine Chao, in a hospital bed.