BIS chief warns Russia could launch limited NATO attack within months
Czech intelligence chief Koudelka said Russia may carry out a small-scale incursion into a NATO state in the coming months, using drones and other hybrid tactics.
In a briefing in Prague, BIS chief Koudelka warned that Russia is preparing a hybrid campaign that could involve drones, missiles and a limited ground operation against a NATO country neighboring Russia. He suggested the move might be a false-flag provocation aimed at testing the alliance’s collective defence commitment under Article 5. The warning aligns with statements from Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who told the Sejm that Russian planners anticipate hybrid attacks on states backing Ukraine, and French President Emmanuel Macron, who described the threat as well-substantiated.
Koudelka noted that European intelligence services are actively working to avert such an escalation. He also said Russia’s broader strategy is to heighten tension and exploit Western vulnerabilities to weaken support for Ukraine.
Why it matters
A Russian incursion could trigger NATO's collective defence clause, reshaping European security.
How this story developed
- Sep 3 Putin links Far East investment, demographic policy and Ukraine war at Eastern Economic Forum
- Sep 14 Poland deployed a helicopter to patrol its airspace and issued civilian alerts following the drone attacks.
- Sep 14 A Russian drone struck a train near the Ukraine-Poland border shortly after a diplomatic train carrying former UK and Swedish leaders left the station, prompting condemnation from European officials.
- Sep 14 A train carrying former British prime minister Boris Johnson and other senior officials was reported to be near the drone strike.
- Sep 14 Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky announced Ukraine had offered its allies to secure an agreement with Russia to end destruction of critical infrastructure.
- Sep 14 NATO pledged to increase military aid to Ukraine and reinforce its eastern flank.
- Sep 14 Kim Jong-un promised his “unwavering support” to Russian President Vladimir Putin in a letter, calling Russia’s war “sacred”.
- Sep 15 Report clarified that the damaged locomotive was intended to adjust wheelsets for differing track gauges.
- Sep 15 NATO Secretary General said the alliance will raise its aid to Ukraine.
- Sep 15 Poland began fortifying its border crossings with temporary sand‑filled blast walls and new observation posts at Dorohusk, Medyka and Korczowa.
- Sep 17 A fourth Russian strike on the Zaporizhstal Iron and Steel Works wounded a worker.
- Sep 17 A Russian jet‑drone strike near the Polish‑Ukrainian border triggered air‑defence alerts and fighter scrambles.
- Sep 19 Tusk invoked NATO’s Article 4 and announced a trip to Kyiv.
- Sep 20 Ukraine announced new long‑range drone attacks on targets in the Moscow region.
In this story
Related stories
15 in this thread