Brazil's energy direction may stay steady after vote, but Amazon faces new risks

Analysts expect Brazil’s overall energy course to shift little if Flávio Bolsonaro secures the presidency, maintaining momentum from recent oil finds and a focus on domestic value-addition for critical minerals. Monica de Bolle, a Brazilian economist, points out that the main divergence between Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva could be the handling of the Amazon, where existing environmental regulations might be rolled back under a Bolsonaro administration, echoing the loss of over 11 million acres of forest during his father’s rule.

The administration has also celebrated new oil exploration, distinguishing its stance from some left-leaning regional allies. Meanwhile, a nearly $3 billion takeover of a Brazilian rare-earth mining company by USA Rare Earths, in which the U.S. government holds a stake, remains uncertain; Lula has opposed the transaction and may seek to reshape its conditions through forthcoming legislation. The outcome of the election will therefore influence both Brazil’s energy sector and the protection of its rainforest.