Brazilian poll shows Lula's advantage over Bolsonaro shrinking as October approaches

According to a Quaest poll released on Friday, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva maintains a lead over right-wing challenger Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, though the margin has decreased as the October election draws near. In a hypothetical second-round contest, Lula would secure 43% of votes compared with Bolsonaro's 40%, a virtual tie given the poll's two-point margin of error. An earlier August 5 poll showed a wider gap of 44% to 39%.

For a first-round vote, Lula would lead with 38%, Bolsonaro would have 31%, and the remaining candidates—Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema—would each capture between two and four percent. The survey sampled 2,004 adults from August 10-13 and was ordered by the media outlet Globo. Senator Bolsonaro is identified as the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. If no candidate exceeds 50% in the first round, the top two would proceed to a runoff.