California's broccoli dominance faces drought risk, study suggests East Coast boost

A Cornell study warns that drought in California could cut the state's broccoli shipments by up to 20%, and proposes expanding production in ten Eastern states as a buffer.

A recent paper in the journal Agribusiness, authored by Cornell University scholars, examined the vulnerability of the United States' broccoli supply chain, which relies on California for more than 90% of fresh production. Using historical shipment and drought data, the model predicts a near-9% reduction in California shipments during moderate drought and a decline exceeding 20% under severe drought scenarios. Christopher Valadez, president and CEO of the Grower-Shipper Association of Central California, emphasized that the 20% estimate is a statistical average derived from drought-index correlations between 2000 and 2019, not a record of a single year’s collapse.

He highlighted California growers' adaptive measures, such as irrigation tweaks and planting decisions, that have sustained output through past droughts. The study suggests that expanding broccoli cultivation across ten Eastern states could provide a seasonal buffer, cutting annual supply-chain expenses by about $10 million and reducing transport distances to Eastern markets by roughly 20%. Valadez acknowledged the diversification benefit but warned that Eastern growers confront risks like summer heat, humidity-driven disease, and greater seasonal variability, arguing that California's proven resilience and quality should remain a key factor in national supply security.