California tops list of U.S. cities most vulnerable to wildfires, analysis shows

Cotality’s 2026 data reveal that California leads the United States in wildfire exposure, accounting for $850 billion in potential reconstruction value and more than 1.28 million properties facing moderate or greater risk. Evaluating 6.8 million homes with a regulatory-approved insurance scoring model, the firm found that the best-prepared 10 % of properties could experience losses 78 % below the state average, whereas the least prepared 10 % could suffer losses exceeding ten times the average.

A poorly prepared home is roughly 47 times riskier, with expected damages of $47 for every $1 lost by a well-prepared home. Six of the nation’s ten most exposed metros are in California, reflecting dense populations near wildland-urban interfaces. The study also warns that El Niño conditions in 2026 will shift risk patterns, easing Southwest fire danger after winter rains but drying the Pacific Northwest into more severe fire conditions.