Canada's Prime Minister says he examined risk of US-led military action
Prime Minister Mark Carney said his government has studied the possibility of a US-led military move against Canada, calling it an extreme tail risk, while noting frequent talks with President Donald Trump amid a worsening trade dispute.
In a detailed interview, Prime Minister Mark Carney disclosed that his government has studied the chance of a US-led military operation in Canada, labeling it an “extreme tail risk” that warrants contingency planning despite being far from a base-case scenario. He declined to reveal specifics of the analysis but stressed the responsibility of leaders to consider such low-probability threats. Carney also confirmed that he and President Donald Trump communicate frequently, a practice he said continued after trade negotiations fell apart and the US imposed 50 % duties on $28 billion of Canadian goods.
The discussion touched on Canada’s move to reduce reliance on Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite service and its ongoing political review of purchasing a fleet of F-35 stealth fighters, a review launched amid the trade war. Carney rebuked Trump’s claims that Canada is “destroying itself” through immigration, calling them unfounded, and highlighted the need for Canada and the US to work together on issues such as the war in Ukraine. He and Trump did not meet at the recent UN General Assembly, where Carney earlier shared a news conference with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Why it matters
It shows Canada preparing for unlikely security threats while managing a strained relationship with the United States.
How this story developed
- Sep 3 EU ministers clash over budget cuts as frugal states demand higher ambition
- Sep 7 EU officials and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney are preparing a new partnership that would deepen cooperation in commerce, security, space research and critical minerals. Ursula von der Leyen is expected to announce the initiative in her upcoming European Parliament speech, with a summit slated for Canada in October. The talks aim to create a tightly linked alliance that can balance the influence of the United States and China. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump has urged the formation of new alliances to counter perceived threats, without directly naming Canada as a US state.
- Sep 12 The German chancellor’s meeting brought frugal leaders together and featured Draghi’s call for higher borrowing, adding a new dimension to the budget dispute.
- Sep 13 Prime Minister Mark Carney will travel to Strasbourg to speak to the European Parliament after the commission president’s address.
- Sep 14 In response to the July 30 surge of about 80,000 irregular migrants into Ceuta, the European Commission is preparing stricter migration measures that could be unveiled in the upcoming State of the Union address.
- Sep 14 Ursula von der Leyen delivered her State of the Union speech to the European Parliament in Strasbourg, outlining the bloc’s priorities for the coming year.
- Sep 16 The speech is expected to address AI, climate change, summer wildfires, Russia's war in Ukraine, Middle‑East conflicts, international trade tensions, and online child protection, and she will present a draft law to limit
- Sep 16 Czarnek’s proposal to withdraw Poland from the EU ETS was filed in the Sejm.
- Sep 17 Ursula von der Leyen invited Canada to become the EU’s first associate member.
- Sep 17 Prime Minister Mark Carney told the European Parliament that Canada appreciates the EU’s offer to join as its inaugural associate member and outlined a wide-ranging partnership vision.
- Sep 17 President Donald Trump threatened steep tariffs in response to the EU‑Canada partnership proposal.
- Sep 18 Negotiations remain deadlocked as frugal states and cohesion allies continue to clash over budget priorities.
- Sep 19 EU officials noted that the associate‑member concept has no existing definition in EU law and would need unanimous approval of all member states.
- Sep 20 The Commission is now expected to bring the emergency asylum suspension idea to the State of Union address.
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