Central Asian Nations Remain Dependent on Russian Fuel Amid Growing Supply Strains

According to a recent CEPA analysis, the former Soviet republics of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan remain largely dependent on Russian fuel supplies, a situation that has become more precarious as Moscow prioritises its own regions. Mongolia, importing more than 90% of its petroleum from Russia, has recognized that Russian imports must temporarily meet its entire fuel demand. In Tajikistan, Russian gas deliveries have dropped by half and aviation kerosene shipments have ceased, prompting Dushanbe to seek replacements from neighboring Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan with limited success.

Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov confirmed total reliance on Russian gasoline and highlighted an accelerated refinery construction effort. Uzbekistan, less affected due to existing refining capacity, still obtains almost half of its gasoline from Russia. The analysis argues that Russia has long used preferential fuel pricing as a lever of influence, but its ability to do so is now constrained, raising the risk of political crises in the region.