Changing demographics in Melbourne’s east could tip Victoria’s state election

Melbourne’s eastern suburbs, once Liberal strongholds, have become increasingly diverse, with nearly half of Box Hill residents reporting Chinese ancestry. This demographic churn has turned seats like Glen Waverley, Ashwood, Ringwood and Bayswater into marginal contests essential for a Coalition majority. Small-business owners such as Tom Zheng warn of unsustainable rent and labour expenses, calling for tenant subsidies and stronger protections.

Voter anxiety over crime and public safety, highlighted by incidents in Box Hill and Nunawading, is shaping political discourse. Parties are intensifying outreach to Chinese-Australian communities via cultural events and social-media platforms such as RedNote, promising projects like a new childcare centre in Bayswater. Yet criticism over the state’s growing debt and costly infrastructure projects like the Suburban Rail Loop may sway swing voters toward Labor or the Liberals, depending on perceived competence.