China posts 4.5% Q3 growth despite high U.S. tariffs
China's economy expanded 4.5% year-on-year in the third quarter, outpacing expectations, while U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods remain elevated.
According to Goldman Sachs, China’s real GDP increased 4.5% year-on-year in the third quarter, marginally exceeding the 4.4% forecast. The analyst highlighted stronger-than-expected activity, with industrial output climbing 5.5% and retail sales surpassing expectations. While 100% of U.S. exports to China are subject to tariffs and a large share of Chinese exports face U.S. duties, China’s September export growth hit 36.3% year-over-year, its fastest since February.
In contrast, U.S. GDP growth slowed to 2.5% and 2.2% in the first two quarters, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The IMF notes a wide gap in GDP per-capita, with China at $15,370 versus over $95,000 in the United States. Fiscal data show China narrowing its budget deficit, while U.S. deficit projections remain higher.
Why it matters
China’s robust growth challenges expectations about the impact of U.S. tariffs and signals continued economic resilience.
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