China’s supply-chain worries drove its clean-energy surge, Europe remains unmoved

Research released by the London School of Economics’ Grantham Research Institute traces China’s clean-energy boom to a strategic response to the “Malacca dilemma,” when most of its oil imports passed through a chokepoint it could not control. This early focus on supply-chain resilience led to sustained investment in wind and solar, a move Xi Jinping described as “forward-looking” after the US-Iran conflict disrupted oil flows.

The authors contend that green growth offers both security and economic durability, dismissing arguments that diversifying fossil-fuel imports improves resilience because oil prices are set globally. Citing Oxford University analysis, the paper finds that extra North Sea drilling would cut UK household energy costs by only £16-£82 a year, far less than the £105-£441 savings projected under a renewable-focused pathway. The study highlights the divergent reactions of China’s centralized system and Europe’s fragmented approach to hypothetical supply shocks.