Citi forecasts Chinese automakers could claim up to 30% of EU market by 2035

Citi’s team, led by Harald Hendrikse, estimates that Chinese automotive firms could grow from roughly 10% of the European market today to between 15% and 30% by 2035. Under current EU rules, the upper bound of 30% is possible, but extending tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles that also function as plug-in hybrids would cap the share at 25%. The most restrictive outcome stems from the EU’s draft Industrial Accelerator Act, which would require Chinese makers to assemble cars locally and use EU supply chains, reducing their market share to 5% within two years and to 15% by 2035.

The analysts note that such localisation would erode the cost advantage Chinese producers enjoy. They also predict that European carmakers could face up to ten years of volume decline and may need to restructure. Meanwhile, other Asian manufacturers, chiefly from Japan and South Korea, are expected to see their share fall from 20% last year to below 16% by 2035. Brands like BYD and SAIC’s MG have already accelerated Chinese market penetration, prompting concern among European politicians and industry groups.