Climate change reshapes malaria risk zones across Africa, study finds
A new study shows that rising temperatures are shifting malaria hotspots from West and Central Africa toward East and Southern Africa.
Scientists led by Romaric Odoulami of the University of Cape Town created a computer model that ties childhood malaria prevalence to temperature and precipitation, then compared it with a hypothetical climate-neutral scenario. Using over a hundred years of blood-sample data from sub-Saharan Africa, they estimated that climate change has added roughly 0.5 % to malaria transmission—about one extra case per 1,000 children—most sharply in East and southern zones, with the Ethiopian highlands experiencing eight additional cases per 1,000 children, while West Africa saw a 1-2 % reduction.
Published in Nature, the study forecasts a 2 % overall decline in transmission over the next 85 years if global warming follows an intermediate 2.7 °C pathway. Yet Cyril Caminade of the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics warns that public-health interventions such as bed nets, insecticide treatments and preventive drugs will outweigh climate-driven shifts. He calls for expanded prevention strategies in regions where malaria risk is projected to rise, noting Africa cannot wait for major emitters to curb emissions.
Why it matters
Understanding climate-driven changes in malaria risk helps guide prevention efforts and protect vulnerable populations across Africa.
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