Climate shift and Iran conflict slash Morocco's sardine catch, threatening global supplies
Morocco's sardine harvest has dropped almost half since 2022 as warming seas and higher fuel costs from the Iran war push fishermen farther offshore.
Morocco, which provides the bulk of the world’s sardines, saw its catches fall nearly 46% from 2022 to 2024 as climate-driven temperature changes push the fish into distant waters. At the same time, the war in Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, spiking fuel costs and forcing vessels to travel farther for diminishing returns. Ocean economist Rashid Sumaila describes the combination as unprecedented, noting that higher energy prices ripple through fisheries from Thailand to the Pacific coast.
Morocco’s frozen-sardine exports have dropped from about 70% of its open-sea fish trade in 2020 to roughly 23% in 2025, and the country has imposed an export ban to protect domestic supply. Meanwhile, Portugal and Spain have trimmed their sardine quotas, while prices in Spain have risen to 1.50 euros per kilogram. The tightening market is expected to raise canned-sardine prices for consumers worldwide, impacting low-income households the most.
Why it matters
Shrinking sardine supplies raise global food prices and strain low-income consumers.
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