Coal demand rises in Southeast Asia while Singapore struggles to meet green import targets
The IEA forecasts a 4.4% annual rise in coal use across Southeast Asia, and Wood Mackenzie says Singapore will likely miss its 2035 low-carbon electricity import goal.
The International Energy Agency’s ASEAN Energy Security Review expects Southeast Asian electricity demand to rise roughly 5.4% each year from 2026 to 2030, spurring growth in both renewable and fossil-fuel generation. While solar and wind capacity is set to expand by about 23% and 26% annually respectively, coal demand is projected to climb 4.4% per year—the fastest growth worldwide—largely because coal-rich nations such as Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines view domestic coal as a cornerstone of energy security.
Indonesia alone accounts for more than 56% of the regional increase, with captive coal plants supporting industrial sectors like nickel processing. In Singapore, Wood Mackenzie warns that despite approvals for 9.25 GW of cross-border import projects, none have begun construction, meaning the city-state will likely achieve only about 15% of its electricity from low-carbon imports by 2035, well below the one-third target.
Obstacles include export permit frameworks, financing gaps and the absence of mechanisms for Singapore to claim carbon credits on imported power. The report urges a broader view of energy security that balances short-term reliability with long-term climate goals, suggesting nuclear and accelerated geothermal research as potential domestic options.
