Coalition faces steep climb as One Nation looms over Victoria's November vote
With the Victorian election less than 100 days away, the Liberal-National Coalition must retain all its seats and add at least 16 to oust Labor, while One Nation could reshape the contest.
In the lead-up to Victoria’s November 28 state election, Labor’s 56-seat majority from the last poll faces potential erosion of up to 20 seats, according to insiders. The Liberal and National parties, together holding 29 seats, would need to hold every current district and win at least 16 more to reach the 45-seat threshold for a majority government. One Nation’s entry into the race adds uncertainty, especially in the outer-suburban ring and regional constituencies, where it may capture seats from both Labor and the Coalition.
Premier Ben Carroll, newly installed, has made law-and-order a central theme to retain support in the western and north-western suburbs, while the Coalition targets eastern suburbs such as Bayswater and Glen Waverley and regional seats like Bendigo East and Ripon. Retirements of incumbents in Pakenham, Melton, Bayswater, Bass, Murray Plains and Gippsland East further intensify the contest, and the Greens remain a factor in inner-city seats such as Richmond and Northcote.
Why it matters
The election will decide whether Labor continues its 12-year rule or the Coalition seizes power, affecting policies across Victoria.
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