Coastal forests in North Carolina shrink by over one-fifth as sea levels rise

A recent analysis of Landsat and Sentinel-2 imagery revealed that the coastal plain of North Carolina lost about 21.1% of its forest cover between 1985 and 2021, shrinking by roughly 64,220 hectares. The Albemarle Peninsula, which includes private lands and the Pocosin Lakes National Wildlife Refuge, experienced a faster rate of loss after 2010, with nearly 24,000 hectares converting to marsh, shrubland or ghost forest during that decade.

The spread of ghost forests—areas of dead, salt-stressed trees—expanded at a rate about 2.5 times higher after 2010. Researchers linked these changes to sea-level rise, increased soil salinity, and higher groundwater tables, which stress tree roots and create oxygen-poor conditions. Extreme events such as severe droughts and Hurricane Irene also heightened vulnerability. The study demonstrates how satellite-based AI classification can track long-term coastal ecosystem shifts and identify areas most at risk from ongoing sea-level rise.