Congress urged to halt funding for LEAD after data misrepresentation uncovered
A new analysis shows that the claimed 58% drop in recidivism for Seattle's LEAD program was based on misinterpreted statistics, prompting calls for federal funding to be paused.
An 11-year review by the Washington Policy Center found that the LEAD diversion model’s touted 58% reduction in recidivism and 39% drop in felony charges were derived from a misreading of statistical odds, not actual arrest counts. These inflated numbers were repeatedly used to persuade city councils, state legislatures, and the U.S. Congress to allocate hundreds of millions of dollars to the program nationwide. LEAD co-founder Lisa Daugaard admitted the 58% figure was incorrectly presented, while the HaRRT Center at the University of Washington defended the underlying peer-reviewed research.
Eric Zimmerman, WPC’s Director of Public Safety Solutions Policy, called for immediate congressional scrutiny of all LEAD funding. Rep. Suzan DelBene, who cited a 60% recidivism reduction in a 2016 amendment, faced criticism for relying on the erroneous data. Advocacy groups and public-health officials argue that accurate evidence is essential before further taxpayer money is spent.
