Conservative byelection slump threatens Pierre Poilievre’s leadership prospects

In the 2025 general election the Conservatives secured 41.31% of the popular vote, yet seven subsequent byelections have reduced their average support to roughly 24.6%, despite an outlier 80.86% victory in Battle River—Crowfoot. Prime Minister Mark Carney noted that the Liberals captured more than half the votes in three byelections held on Monday, including the traditionally safe Liberal seat of Beaches—East York and the former Conservative stronghold of North Vancouver—Capilano.

In Chicoutimi—Le Fjord, the Conservative candidate managed only 12.5% of the vote, far behind Liberal Daniel Gobeil. Poilievre has recently attacked the government’s handling of U.S. trade pressures, especially after Donald Trump announced new tariffs, but his stance has not improved the party’s electoral performance. Six more byelections remain, with the Brantford-Brant South-Six Nations contest seen as a bellwether; incumbent Larry Brock plans to resign, and a loss there could signal broader vulnerability for the Conservative leader. The column argues that these local results may foreshadow challenges for Poilievre ahead of the next general election.