Conservatives pull ahead of Reform UK as main opposition in latest poll
An Ipsos poll of more than 2,200 UK residents conducted between 9 and 13 October finds 35% now name the Conservatives as the leading opposition, a three‑point edge over Reform UK’s 32%. The shift follows Kemi Badenoch’s recent conference announcements, where she promoted a tax‑cut package that includes a full exemption for family homes from inheritance tax and a £1 million allowance for couples. Analysts link the swing to those messages and to a string of scandals surrounding Reform UK, including allegations of sexism, racism and a police investigation into foreign donations. The poll suggests Labour is still expected to remain the largest party, but voter sentiment appears to be moving between the right‑hand parties.
How this was covered
- Left-leaning outlets covered this 22h later
Why it matters
The change in who is seen as the main opposition could reshape party strategies ahead of a potential general election.
How the sides frame it
LOW AGREEMENTLeft-leaning coverage stresses Reform's scandals and crypto funding, while right-leaning coverage highlights the Conservative “Badenoch bounce” from tax-cut messaging and portrays Reform as financially strong but untrustworthy; center coverage offers a neutral overview of party standings and regional dynamics.
LEFT
Left-leaning coverage frames Reform UK as tainted by scandals and crypto money, while portraying the Conservative surge as tied to Badenoch’s appeal.
CENTER
Center coverage presents a neutral overview of party standings, noting Reform’s regional gains and Farage’s low favourability in Wales.
RIGHT
Right-leaning coverage highlights the Conservative “Badenoch bounce” from tax-cut messaging and portrays Reform as financially well-resourced but lacking trust.
The left emphasises
- scandals surrounding Reform UK, including allegations of sexism, racism and a police investigation into foreign donations
- crypto-backed funding from Christopher Harborne and Ben Delo
- Badenoch’s surge pushes Conservatives ahead
The right emphasises
- Poll shows Kemi Badenoch's tax-cut message lifts Conservatives ahead of Reform
- YouGov poll puts Reform back in third place for the first time since early 2024
- Reform UK can buy leaflets. It can't buy trust - yet
How this story developed
- Sep 29 Andy Burnham signals possible UK return to the EU after condemning Brexit
- Sep 30 The Prime Minister now says re‑joining the EU is among the options the government will consider.
- Sep 30 Burnham signaled that full EU membership is among the possible routes Labour could evaluate.
- Oct 3 A new poll shows half of British adults now support rejoining the EU.
- Oct 4 Kemi Badenoch opened the Conservative conference by framing the Tories as a common-sense party, unveiling pledges on tighter welfare, prison expansion and free childcare for high-earning families.
- Oct 5 Badenoch pushed to drop the £100,000 childcare tax cap at the conference.
- Oct 6 Announced a cut to employer National Insurance for 21‑ to 24‑year‑olds from 15% to 7.5%.
- Oct 7 Badenoch announced a defence spending target of 3% of GDP.
- Oct 8 Badenoch denounced Reform UK as ethnically exclusive at the conference.
- Oct 13 YouGov’s latest survey indicates that Reform has reclaimed the third-most-favoured position, surpassing the Conservative Party for the first time since early 2024, though the margin is within the poll’s error range. The poll suggests the Conservatives may have benefited from recent conference coverage, while Labour’s support appears to be fading. In the Commons, MP Burnham affirmed the legitimacy of recent election results but highlighted concerns over foreign actors seeking to influence UK democracy.
- Oct 18 Ipsos poll shows Conservatives have moved ahead of Reform UK in the opposition race.
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