Coral Records Reveal Stronger El Niño Events Since Pre-Industrial Times
A new study of Galapagos corals shows that El Niño episodes have become markedly more intense compared with the pre-industrial era.
A team led by climate scientist Julia Cole analyzed both ancient and modern corals from the Galapagos archipelago, extracting temperature signals from the skeletons' chemical composition. The resulting 1,000-year temperature series suggests that El Niño events have intensified since the pre-industrial period, supporting model forecasts of more frequent extreme episodes in the 2030s. NOAA has already recorded Pacific surface temperatures more than three degrees Celsius above average this year, prompting warnings of a potentially powerful El Niño. While the study fills a crucial data gap, experts such as Andreas Fink note uncertainties due to the focus on the eastern Pacific and incomplete year-by-year coverage. Nonetheless, the research underscores the broader climate risks of stronger El Niños, including global heat spikes, floods, droughts and heightened coral-bleaching threats.
Why it matters
Understanding past El Niño strength helps gauge future climate risks and informs preparation for extreme weather and coral loss.
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