Covert oil shuttles through Hormuz curb prices amid Iran conflict

Despite repeated attacks on merchant vessels, oil producers in the Persian Gulf are sustaining a clandestine shuttle system that moves crude through the Strait of Hormuz and onto tankers off Oman, a route that analysts say now exceeds the previously estimated four-million-barrel-a-day level. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright recently noted that about nine million barrels a day crossed Hormuz in the prior week, far above market expectations and close to half of pre-war volumes.

Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. confirmed that 23 of its ships have been targeted, resulting in one fatality and 20 injuries, but the company insists on continuing deliveries. Vessel-tracking data from Bloomberg, Kpler and Vortexa reveal that Iraq, Qatar and Kuwait are also using the dark shuttle, while Saudi Arabia has begun loading at Ras Tanura and positioning supertankers offshore. These covert movements, together with pipeline workarounds, strategic stock releases and lower global demand, have limited the rise of Brent futures, keeping them between $80 and $90 per barrel in August, far below the $150 scenario feared at the conflict’s outset.