CPO prices expected to stay above RM4,700 per tonne amid weather and energy market pressures
The Malaysian Palm Oil Council says crude palm oil will likely remain above RM4,700 a tonne for the rest of 2026, driven by supply risks from dry weather and supportive energy markets.
According to the Malaysian Palm Oil Council, crude palm oil prices should stay above RM4,700 per tonne through the end of 2026, bolstered by weather-linked supply concerns and favourable energy market conditions. Drier-than-average rains linked to El Niño have reduced rainfall in both Indonesia and Malaysia, a factor that typically impacts output six to nine months later. Malaysian output rose 1.4 % in August but remains under the same month a year earlier, and August exports fell 7.5 % from July, though total exports for the year are projected to reach 16 million tonnes.
The council notes that higher production and weaker shipments have lifted stockpiles to 2.82 million tonnes, but expects inventories to ease as both countries cut output in 2027. Global vegetable-oil prices were mixed in September, with palm oil gaining 3.5 % while Argentine sunflower oil fell 6.1 % due to increased supply from Ukraine and Russia. Energy market dynamics, including higher gasoil and crude prices after disruptions to Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, have also improved biofuel margins, further supporting palm oil prices.
Why it matters
Palm oil price stability affects global food costs, biofuel supply and the economies of major producing nations.
In this story
