Democratic Party Gains Significant Identification Edge as Trump Approval Stalls

New polling from Gallup reveals Democrats enjoy a ten-point advantage over Republicans in party identification, while independents are also more likely to lean Democratic. The change coincides with President Trump's approval rating remaining below 40 percent for months and Democrats appearing competitive in several Senate races that previously favored Trump. Gallup senior editor Jeffrey Jones likens the pattern to the post-Bush period that preceded Democratic victories in 2006 and 2008.

Pew Research Center data shows the Democratic gain is especially pronounced among groups that once backed Trump, including Hispanic voters, young men and young women, with the latter now showing a 16-point Democratic tilt. One outlet share of self-identified Democrats approaches the level seen in the 2018 midterms, a year that produced a massive Democratic gain in the House.