Democratic senators urge CFTC to ban wildfire betting on prediction markets

Nine Democratic senators, including Adam Schiff and Alex Padilla, sent a letter to Commodity Futures Trading Commission chair Michael Selig expressing alarm over prediction-gaming sites that let users bet on wildfire outcomes. They pointed to Polymarket’s recent offering of contracts on the Palisades and Eaton fires, which drew about $1.2 million in wagers on variables such as containment duration and total acreage burned.

Critics, including Ann Skeet of Santa Clara University’s Markkula Center for Applied Ethics, warned that financial stakes could incentivize deliberate fire-setting, while survivor Sylvie Andrews called the practice morally repugnant. The lawmakers noted that the Los Angeles fires claimed 31 lives and destroyed more than 16,000 structures, arguing that allowing such bets undermines public trust and commodifies suffering.

They urged the CFTC to prohibit unrestricted wildfire betting amid a record-breaking fire season. Recent polling shows mixed public opinion on prediction markets but a majority favor stricter regulation to prevent manipulation.