Democrats Bob Brooks and Paige Cognetti pull ahead of GOP incumbents in Pennsylvania swing districts
A new poll shows Democratic candidates Bob Brooks and Paige Cognetti leading Republican incumbents in Pennsylvania’s 7th and 8th congressional districts ahead of the midterms.
According to a recent Inquirer/New York Times/Siena University poll, Democratic challenger Bob Brooks leads incumbent Rep. Ryan Mackenzie 49% to 44% in Pennsylvania’s 7th District, while Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti leads Rep. Rob Bresnahan 51% to 46% in the 8th District. The surveys, conducted with about 400 likely voters per district, show 3%-6% of respondents still undecided and place the leads within the poll’s margin of error.
Both districts were captured by Republicans in the 2022 elections, and the races have attracted more than $116 million in TV advertising and visits from national party leaders. Brooks, a union leader and retired firefighter, has raised over $2.6 million, far outpacing Mackenzie, while Cognetti has raised $2.5 million compared with Bresnahan’s roughly $1 million. Voters cite concerns about cost-of-living, corruption and Trump’s approval, which remains low in these areas.
Why it matters
The poll indicates Democrats may reclaim two key Pennsylvania House seats, influencing control of the U.S. House.
How this story developed
- Sep 21 Democrats eye House control to launch investigations into Trump-era corruption
- Sep 25 Florida GOP officials say they are preparing for possible defeats after polls show Democrats gaining ground in the governor’s race and Trump’s approval dropping sharply.
- Oct 6 Democratic Senate leader Chuck Schumer says the party is poised for a blue wave, but polling uncertainty, a weak brand image and Republican cash advantages could undermine that outlook.
- Oct 11 Donald’s campaign edited its website to cut eight Trump mentions and moved a Trump photo to a less prominent spot.
- Oct 15 According to a poll of 1,202 registered Americans taken between October 9 and 12, Donald Trump’s overall approval rating has slipped to 36%, the lowest point in either of his terms, with a 64% disapproval rate. Among independents, only 22% express approval, and his rating on inflation also dropped to 22%, marking another record low. The decline is most pronounced among voters younger than 45, those without a college degree, non-white voters and households earning less than $50,000 annually. Experts said the numbers signal a difficult environment for Republican candidates as midterm elections approach, noting that the president’s low standing could hinder the party’s ability to retain its narrow majorities in the House and Senate. The poll also revealed that a majority of respondents view the economy negatively and consider the cost of living their top concern. The study carries a margin of error of 2.5 percent.
- Oct 19 Cook Political Report upgraded 18 House races toward Democrats and new polling aggregates show double‑digit Democratic leads.
- Oct 20 A new poll shows approval at 34% and disapproval at 66%.
- Oct 24 Trump’s dividend proposal and tariff warnings were highlighted at a Dallas convention.
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