Democrats hold clear lead as midterms approach amid Trump’s historic low approval

One month before the 2026 midterm elections, the balance of power appears to be tilting toward Democrats. The Cook Political Report forecasts a net gain of five to fifteen House seats for the party, enough for a narrow majority, and notes six Senate races have shifted in their favor since June. President Trump’s approval rating has fallen to 37%, matching the lowest pre-midterm level in the past fifty years, and 53% of respondents strongly disapprove of his performance.

Economic concerns dominate voter sentiment, with polls attributing higher prices to Trump’s policies and showing Democrats ahead on economic competence. Voter enthusiasm also favors Democrats, with 84% saying they will definitely vote compared with 77% of Republicans, and a nine-point lead in the congressional ballot test. While redistricting and Republican spending could limit Democratic gains, historic trends and one outlet national mood suggest the GOP faces a difficult ballot.