Democrats Reach Record-High Odds of Capturing Senate in Midterms

Prediction-market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket now assign Democrats a 58% and 60% probability, respectively, of seizing control of the Senate in the upcoming midterms - the highest odds the party has ever received. This rise follows a series of polls showing Democratic Senate candidates ahead in numerous battlegrounds, including seven races the Cook Political Report labels as toss-ups: Texas, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire and Maine.

Beyond those, Democrats are favored in North Carolina and Georgia, both of which Trump won in 2024, leading some Republican operatives to debate abandoning the Georgia race. With 35 Senate seats contested, Democrats need a net gain of four to claim a majority; a three-seat gain would result in a 50-50 split, with Vice President JD Vance casting the deciding vote. The heightened odds also extend to the House, where Kalshi and Polymarket give Democrats roughly 88-90% chances of taking control. Looking ahead, Kalshi projects a 58% likelihood of a Democratic presidential victory, naming Jon Ossoff, Gavin Newsom and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as front-runners.