East African oil race intensifies as Uganda backs rival refinery over Dangote's Lamu project

Uganda’s oil corporation has confirmed that its crude will feed the $20 billion Tanzania refinery and the 60,000-bpd Hoima refinery, positioning the two facilities as complementary rather than competitive. By contrast, Aliko Dangote’s planned refinery on Kenya’s Lamu Island faces uncertainty, as Uganda remains non-committal and the project may have to rely on seaborne crude imports, which are subject to price volatility and limited storage capacity at Lamu Port.

A new 320-million-liter fuel storage terminal in Kampala underscores Uganda’s ambition to become a regional fuel supplier. Meanwhile, Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame and Ethiopia have expressed interest in acquiring a 30 % stake in the Dangote refinery. The rivalry highlights a broader contest for regional energy leadership between Kenya and Tanzania, especially after the abandonment of the Kenya-Uganda pipeline in favor of the East African Crude Oil Pipeline to Tanzania.