Economist warns fresh data keeps higher rate risk alive for Norges Bank

Handelsbanken economist Marius Gonsholt Hov observes a slowdown in macro volatility both domestically and internationally, yet the newest AKU unemployment statistics and Statistics Norway’s industrial business barometer reinforce a sizable risk of additional Norges Bank rate increases. He explains that markets currently assign a higher probability to a December hike and have fully priced in a move by March, but upcoming inflation data will be decisive.

While the labour market shows a healthy balance with higher employment and firms reporting normal access to workers, industrial activity remains stable and price signals are closely watched. The strengthening Norwegian krone dampens imported price shocks, yet service-sector prices stay elevated and domestic industrial goods prices show upward pressure. Globally, PMI indices indicate modest growth without major swings, while rising energy costs and long-term yields act as a counterweight. Investors also focus on upcoming earnings from firms such as DNB, Yara, Vår Energi, Nordic Semiconductor and Tomra, with analysts noting valuation opportunities.