Economists predict August retail inflation in India could rise to 4.5-5%
A survey of 11 economists projects India's August consumer price index to increase to between 4.5% and 5%, spurred by higher food and core prices.
Eleven economists surveyed expect India's August retail inflation to land between 4.5% and 5%, with a median of roughly 4.8%, the highest in 20 months. This would follow a July reading of 4.45%, already above the RBI's 4% target for two consecutive months. The projected increase is attributed to a widespread surge in food costs—particularly sugar, onions and edible oils—and a stronger core component driven by soaring gold and silver prices.
Individual forecasts range from 4.6% to 5%, with core inflation estimates around 4% to 4.4%. Analysts also warn of external risks such as potential energy disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz and below-normal monsoon rainfall. The National Statistics Office will release the official CPI data on September 14, providing the last major indicator before the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee convenes in early October.
