Economists say 2027 Norwegian budget will sustain higher rates but not drive them

In the wake of the 2027 state budget proposal, DNB Carnegie's chief economist Kjersti Haugland argues that the government's spending will contribute to keeping the policy rate high, though the primary inflationary pressure stems from persistently high wage growth. SEB analysts Erica Dalstø and Marthe Eide add that the budget's oil-related outlays could rise during the upcoming coalition talks, adding modest upward pressure on fiscal stimulus.

Elisabeth Holvik of Sparebank 1 Gruppen describes the budget's overall effect on the economy as neutral, yet notes that the fiscal boost for 2026 has been revised upward, which could increase the likelihood of another rate increase. Finance Minister Jens Stoltenberg reiterates that Norges Bank alone sets rates, taking into account domestic factors and international developments. Overall, economists see the budget as a factor that sustains higher rates without being the decisive cause.