Economists warn automation may push capitalist states toward repression over redistribution
A new paper by Daron Acemoglu, Mehdi Shadmehr and Arda Gitmez argues that rising automation makes repression a cheaper option for capitalist governments than redistribution, heightening the risk of authoritarian backlash.
In a working paper titled "Automation and Repression," Nobel laureate Daron Acemoglu and co-authors Mehdi Shadmehr and Arda Gitmez explore the political calculus of capitalist states facing widespread automation. Their theoretical model shows that while redistribution could dampen popular revolt, its cost escalates with greater automation, making repression—a tool with a relatively fixed cost—more attractive to ruling elites.
The authors reference historic warnings from tech entrepreneurs such as Nick Hanauer and Kai-Fu Lee, and cite Mo Gawdat's comments on impending surveillance and forced compliance. They argue that once a credible threat of uprising materialises, societies may transition from democratic governance to anti-democratic coups, replacing "pitchforks" with "guns." Recent backlash against AI and data-center growth in the United States, Britain and Australia, including drone and facial-recognition pilots by NSW Police Force and Western Australian Police, exemplify this emerging repressive trajectory. The paper calls for future research to incorporate lobbying, political donations and other democratic capture mechanisms to better understand these dynamics.
Why it matters
Understanding how automation could drive governments toward repression helps anticipate future social and political risks.
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