Eisenkot bloc projected to edge Netanyahu in polls but lacks majority without Arab parties
Two recent polls show Gadi Eisenkot's alliance slightly ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu's, yet its refusal to partner with Arab parties keeps it below the 60-seat majority needed.
Recent polling by Channel 13 and Channel 12 suggests that the coalition backing Yashar chairman Gadi Eisenkot would narrowly surpass Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc if elections were held today, with projected Knesset totals of 51-50 and 55-51 respectively. Despite these leads, the Eisenkot alliance has pledged not to cooperate with Arab parties, preventing it from reaching the 60-seat majority needed to form a government.
The Channel 13 survey shows Yashar at 20 seats and Likud at 18, with modest gains for Together and stable figures for the Democrats and Joint List, while the Channel 12 poll gives Yashar 24 seats and Likud 21, among other adjustments. Smaller parties such as Amcha Yisrael and the Ultra-Orthodox Public Party fall below the electoral threshold in one of the polls. Both polls were conducted by research groups including The Index, Stat-Net, Project Midgam, Askaria, and the Midgam Institute, with margins of error of 3.1% and 4.4% respectively.
Why it matters
The results reveal how coalition dynamics and Arab-party boycotts could shape Israel's next government formation.
How the sides frame it
MODERATE AGREEMENTLeft-leaning coverage highlights Eisenkot’s narrow lead and the inability to form a government without Arab parties, while centrist coverage stresses a broader stalemate and the election’s historic importance.
LEFT
Left-leaning coverage frames the Eisenkot bloc as narrowly ahead of Netanyahu but unable to form a government without Arab parties.
CENTER
Center coverage frames the race as a stalemate with polls stable and Eisenkot only slightly ahead, emphasizing the election’s significance.
The left emphasises
- projected to edge Netanyahu in polls
- lacks majority without Arab parties
- poll numbers: Yashar 20-24 seats, Likud 18-21 seats
How this story developed
- Sep 3 Netanyahu urges fragmented right-wing parties to merge ahead of October election
- Oct 6 The United Nations Secretary‑General called for a permanent ceasefire in Gaza.
- Oct 6 Opposition leaders met to outline a coordinated electoral strategy.
- Oct 6 Defense Minister Israel Katz announced a heightened state of readiness for Israeli forces in Gaza and warned of severe retaliation if troops are harmed.
- Oct 7 President Isaac Herzog and his wife Michal lit a memorial candle at the President’s Residence at 6:29 a.m., opening the October 7 remembrance ceremony.
- Oct 7 Israel placed its security forces at maximum readiness on the anniversary, citing possible new Hamas attacks.
- Oct 7 Families of victims rallied across Israel demanding an inquiry into the October 7 response.
- Oct 7 A civilian‑led memorial ceremony was held at Yarkon Park in Tel Aviv.
- Oct 18 Donald Trump publicly backed Benjamin Netanyahu’s reelection bid, saying the Israeli leader is essential to counter Iran and that a different premier would force the United States to take on more of the conflict.
- Oct 18 Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu thanked US President Donald Trump on Sunday for his support ahead of the parliamentary elections on 27 October.
- Oct 18 Trump posted his endorsement of Netanyahu on Truth Social.
- Oct 19 Netanyahu warned Israel could face a hostile U.S. president after Trump’s term.
- Oct 19 Trump warned that a different Israeli leader could compel the United States to intervene against Iran.
- Oct 20 Vice President JD Vance announced he will not support Netanyahu in the Israeli election.
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