El Niño and dry African air suppress Atlantic hurricane activity this season

Since the start of the season in June, the Atlantic basin has seen only three named tropical storms, all of which were weak and short-lived. Meteorologists attribute the lull to a rapidly intensifying El Niño, which has pushed Pacific sea-surface temperatures up to 4 °C above normal, creating strong eastward winds that generate wind shear hostile to storm organization. Concurrently, the West African monsoon is below average, and dry, dusty air from the Sahara is sweeping across the Atlantic, acting like a cap on convection.

These combined factors are expected to keep the season among the quietest since at least 2013, with forecasts of fewer than ten named storms. Despite the overall suppression, isolated events like Tropical Storm Arthur have produced extreme rainfall, such as over 29 inches near Cottonport, Louisiana. Historically, El Niño years can still spawn powerful hurricanes, so coastal residents are urged to stay prepared.