El Niño and Iran conflict threaten Asian food supplies, raising unrest risk
A Verisk Maplecroft report warns that El Niño-related weather extremes and the war in Iran are jeopardising crop yields across Asia, potentially sparking civil unrest in vulnerable nations.
Verisk Maplecroft’s latest analysis highlights a dual threat to Asian agriculture: the ongoing war in Iran, which has halted fuel and fertilizer supplies, and a powerful El Niño that is driving severe weather events. Indonesia’s palm-oil sector is battling uncontrolled wildfires, India’s monsoon rains are about 15% below normal, and Thailand’s sugar output is set to decline sharply. These disruptions are pushing food inflation higher, a factor historically linked to social upheaval.
More than half of the nations flagged as high-risk for food insecurity also appear in the top tiers of the firm’s Civil Unrest Index, with recent protests already reported in India, Bangladesh, the Philippines and Indonesia. The analysis warns that ineffective governmental responses could ignite broader unrest, while conflict-ridden states such as Afghanistan and Myanmar risk humanitarian crises if food shocks occur. Even if geopolitical tensions ease, planting and fertilisation decisions made during the peak of these disruptions may lock in negative outcomes for the upcoming season.
Why it matters
Food shortages and price spikes could trigger protests and instability across densely populated Asian nations.
In this story
