El Niño could slash West African cocoa output and spark food price hikes
This year's El Niño is expected to cut cocoa production in Côte d’Ivoire by about 20% and worsen Ghana's crop damage, raising food inflation risks across Africa.
Forecasts indicate that the present El Niño, likely the most severe in recent memory, will diminish cocoa yields in Côte d’Ivoire by around 20 percent, jeopardizing the world's top producer. Neighboring Ghana faces compounded challenges as torrential rains have damaged plantations and accelerated the spread of black-pod disease, which the El Niño is expected to aggravate. The Institute of International Finance notes that the phenomenon could also disrupt other African crops through flooding or drought, potentially driving food inflation continent-wide.
Economic conditions are less resilient than during the strong 2015-2016 El Niño, with elevated oil prices inflating transport costs and a robust US dollar adding pressure. These combined factors may significantly affect the region's agricultural sector and overall economic stability.
Why it matters
Cocoa is a key export for West Africa; a sharp drop threatens farmer incomes and could push food prices higher across the continent.
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