El Nino-driven heatwave outlook warns of scorching spring across much of Australia
Meteorologists say a strong El Nino will push temperatures above average this spring, raising the risk of heatwaves, bushfires and storms across Australia.
A strong El Nino, now deemed firmly established by the National Emergency Management Agency, is set to elevate temperatures across Australia during the October-December period. Bureau of Meteorology meteorologist Caitlin Minney explained that the outlook points to unusually high maximum and minimum temperatures, placing much of the country in the warmest fifth of its historical range. The forecast predicts below-average rainfall for eastern and southern states, contrasted with above-average precipitation in parts of the north and west.
These conditions are expected to increase the danger of bushfires, heatwaves, thunderstorms, flooding and tropical cyclones from October to April. The Australia and New Zealand National Council for Fire and Emergency Services also highlighted heightened fire risk in several regions, urging communities to prepare. Overall, the climate pattern reflects a broader warming trend that could make spring heat more intense and longer-lasting than usual.
Why it matters
The forecast signals heightened fire and flood danger for Australians as spring temperatures climb unusually high.
How this story developed
- Aug 31 UN warns that a record-breaking El Niño could trigger worldwide extreme weather
- Sep 7 UK models show a higher likelihood of stormier, wetter conditions during autumn and winter.
- Sep 9 A brief spell of 27‑28 °C heat is expected in southeast England on Sunday.
- Sep 9 The contiguous United States experienced its warmest June-August period on record, with an average temperature of 74.4°F, according to NOAA.
- Sep 10 August 2026 set a new all‑time monthly heat record and drought drove the two biggest western water reservoirs to their lowest historic levels.
- Sep 13 Forecasts now show showers spreading across the west and east of the UK by Tuesday, following the brief heat spike.
- Sep 20 New forecasts show London reaching about 24 °C by Monday and showers expected in Manchester from Thursday.
- Sep 21 The system, now classified as a hurricane, is positioned about 270 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo and 190 miles south-southwest of Zihuatanejo, with sustained winds of 80 mph. Forecasts suggest it could reach major-hurricane strength by Tuesday and maintain a trajectory offshore while dumping 4-8 inches of rain across Guerrero and Michoacan through Thursday. Tourist hubs such as Acapulco, Puerto Vallarta and Guadalajara may experience rough seas and gusty conditions, and the moisture could trigger flash-flood threats in the U.S. Southwest later in the week.
- Sep 23 Polo intensified to Category 5 with maximum sustained winds of 175 mph.
- Sep 23 The study now includes regional death estimates for India, the Sahel, Southeast Asia and Indonesia.
- Sep 24 Authorities opened shelters and deployed thousands of military and Red Cross personnel to assist affected communities.
- Sep 26 A disturbance east of Bermuda now shows a measurable chance of developing into a tropical cyclone.
In this story
Related stories
27 in this thread