El Niño-Driven Waves and Tides Threaten Bay Area Flooding This Week
The National Weather Service says that El Niño, Kelvin waves and post-tropical cyclone Rachel may raise water levels more than a foot and a half, flooding low-lying parts of the Bay Area.
A coastal flood advisory has been issued for the Bay Area as the National Weather Service predicts that high tides, swell from post-tropical cyclone Rachel and a Kelvin wave linked to El Niño will push water levels up to 1.5 feet above normal. The surge, already amplified by thermal expansion, could inundate low-lying streets and bike paths, prompting officials to advise drivers to avoid flooded roads. Meteorologist Karleisa Rogacheski cautioned that water depths are uncertain, while UC Berkeley’s Kristina one outlet reported tides about a foot higher than usual, with visible flooding in Marin County.
Oceanographers stress that one outlet Kelvin wave may peak in San Francisco, adding roughly six inches to sea level, and that another wave is moving up the coast, potentially arriving in three weeks. Researchers warn that future storms riding on top of these elevated waters could cause more severe coastal and inland flooding throughout California this winter.
Why it matters
Rising tides and storm surges could disrupt travel and damage property for Bay Area residents this week.
How this story developed
- Oct 5 Rainy week ahead for Tampa Bay as cold front stalls and Gulf system develops
- Oct 7 The National Hurricane Center now expects Isaias to intensify into a hurricane before Gulf Coast landfall.
- Oct 8 The National Hurricane Center issued a hurricane watch from Bay St. Louis to Indian Pass and a hurricane warning for the Alabama coast.
- Oct 8 Tropical Storm Rachel is moving toward northern Baja and the Gulf of California, while Hurricane Simon is expected to become a major hurricane on Mexico’s west coast, and Hurricane Isaias is strengthening in the Atlantic toward the US Gulf.
- Oct 9 Waves from former Hurricane Rachel ripped apart the Long Beach Peninsula boardwalk, leaving a vacant home on the verge of falling into the sea.
- Oct 10 Mobile, Alabama imposed a curfew as the storm approached.
- Oct 12 City crews began reinforcing the boardwalk’s timber bulkhead while distributing additional sandbags.
- Oct 12 Simon turned northwest, keeping its eye off the coast of Jalisco.
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