El Nino heat surge could cause up to 451,000 extra deaths worldwide, study warns
Researchers at the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab have warned that the ongoing Super El Niño may generate roughly 451,000 extra heat‑related deaths worldwide over the next half‑year compared with a normal year. The analysis links the phenomenon to a 1.2 °C rise in global land temperatures and a 44 % increase in extremely hot days, conditions described as comparable to climate impacts expected two decades from now.
The study projects the highest burdens in the Sahel (about 66,800 additional deaths), Africa’s broader Sahel region, Southeast Asia (about 19,400), Indonesia (about 19,300) and India (about 15,800). The authors recommend measures such as heat‑warning alerts, cooling centres, hydration stations and anticipatory financing to protect vulnerable populations.
How this was covered
- Right-leaning outlets covered this 2h later
- Reported deaths range from 4 to 500,000 across outlets
- Centrist coverage is the most divided on this story
Why it matters
The forecast underscores the immediate human toll of extreme climate events and the urgent need for emergency actions to protect vulnerable communities.
How this story developed
- Aug 31 UN warns that a record-breaking El Niño could trigger worldwide extreme weather
- Sep 3 Temperatures will rise to around 27 °C in parts of southern England on Sunday, while rain and wind are expected to return early next week.
- Sep 3 UN says the El Niño is expected to remain in place until February 2027.
- Sep 5 Czech forecasts include a possible rapid temperature rise to around 30 °C early next week.
- Sep 7 Britain announced cuts of more than 80 % to bilateral aid in eight African states.
- Sep 7 UK models show a higher likelihood of stormier, wetter conditions during autumn and winter.
- Sep 9 A brief spell of 27‑28 °C heat is expected in southeast England on Sunday.
- Sep 9 The contiguous United States experienced its warmest June-August period on record, with an average temperature of 74.4°F, according to NOAA.
- Sep 10 August 2026 set a new all‑time monthly heat record and drought drove the two biggest western water reservoirs to their lowest historic levels.
- Sep 13 Forecasts now show showers spreading across the west and east of the UK by Tuesday, following the brief heat spike.
- Sep 20 New forecasts show London reaching about 24 °C by Monday and showers expected in Manchester from Thursday.
- Sep 23 The study now includes regional death estimates for India, the Sahel, Southeast Asia and Indonesia.
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