Emerson poll shows Ken Paxton narrowly ahead of James Talarico in Texas Senate race

Emerson College’s latest Texas poll, taken on Aug. 9-10, surveyed 1,000 likely voters and placed Attorney General Ken Paxton one point ahead of Democrat James Talarico in the race for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by John Cornyn. The data reveal a pronounced generational divide: voters under 50 back Talarico by 15 points, while those over 50 favor Paxton by 11 points. One outlet average of polls shows Talarico with a 1.2-point lead, but analysts argue his support may have hit a ceiling.

Additional polling from Wedgewood and Texas Southern shows Talarico ahead by roughly two points, with uncommitted voters leaning Republican. The piece also references the close governor’s race, where incumbent Greg Abbott leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa by four points. Commentary in the article strongly favors Paxton over Talarico, framing the latter as a moral threat.