End of Iran-US conflict would lower oil prices but full supply recovery will take months

Should the Iran-US war conclude and the Strait of Hormuz be fully reopened, markets would probably react fast, pushing Brent crude below its current $100-plus level as the conflict-related price surcharge fades. Yet the number of vessels transiting the strait remains a fraction of pre-war traffic, and safe navigation would still depend on mine clearance, infrastructure repairs, and renewed insurer participation. The Council on Foreign Relations notes that earlier partial reopenings still faced significant obstacles from mines and damaged facilities, as well as lingering mistrust.

Optimistic scenarios suggest a sizable share of oil exports could return within months, but complete normalization of supply chains and reconstruction of key assets, such as certain LNG plants, could take years. Consequently, while oil prices may fall sharply in days or weeks, stable pre-war price levels are unlikely until the broader energy market fully recovers.