Endangered Species Law Linked to Loss of Millions of Housing Permits

In research published in the Journal of Public Economics, Maxwell Tabarrok quantifies the housing impact of the 1973 Endangered Species Act, estimating a 10% drop in yearly permit issuance since 1980—about 9 million permits lost. The ESA’s broad definition of “harm” includes not only habitat destruction but also indirect effects such as light pollution and storm-water runoff, prompting costly modifications or outright cancellations of projects.

By matching permit records with species-listing maps, Tabarrok treats each new listing as a natural experiment, finding similar reductions for both undeveloped-land (greenfield) and redevelopment (infill) projects. He acknowledges potential biases, such as development triggering listings or lobbying influences, but his multiple methodological approaches yield comparable results. The study also shows that listings still under proposal have no measurable effect, while delisting restores permitting activity. The findings suggest that environmental protections, while vital, may be unintentionally constraining affordable housing supply across the United States.