Equirus report outlines path for India to hit $20 trillion economy by 2036

Equirus' research suggests India can become a $20 trillion economy by 2036 if it lifts underlying rupee growth to roughly 14.2% and sustains an annual rupee appreciation of 3-3.6%. The report outlines a 20-point reform agenda targeting taxes, capital markets, human capital, services and urban governance, including steps such as bringing fuel under GST, setting minimum state capital-expenditure floors, listing the Railways, creating a sovereign fund and expanding private education.

It emphasizes that services must drive the next growth phase, increasing from about 54% to over 65% of GDP, with GCCs potentially expanding to 5,000 and generating $470-600 billion, while tourism could add $21 billion in foreign-exchange earnings annually. Manufacturing could be constrained by a more protectionist global trade environment, and agriculture’s GDP share is expected to decline as urbanisation accelerates. The reforms are projected to produce Rs 7.9 trillion in direct annual gains against Rs 3.4 trillion in costs, yielding a net benefit of roughly Rs 4.5 trillion. Equirus warns that success depends on comprehensive execution across all measures rather than any single policy.