ESRI says budget measures will barely move child poverty numbers
The Economic and Social Research Institute warns that the latest budget will do little to lower child poverty, with the Child Support and Working Family Payments unlikely to reduce the 200,000 children now below the poverty line.
The Economic and Social Research Institute evaluated the government's spending plans and concluded that the proposed increases to the Child Support Payment and Working Family Payment will not meaningfully reduce child poverty, which reached 200,000 children in 2024 - an increase of nearly 30,000 since 2021. While the budget expands universal childcare subsidies for children up to senior infants, ESRI predicts child poverty will remain roughly unchanged compared with a wage-indexed baseline.
The institute argues that a second-tier Child Benefit would be the most effective remedy, a measure that Taoiseach Micheál Martin says he is working on while protecting existing benefits. ESRI also noted modest gains for the lowest-income households, whereas better-off families see little change, and highlighted that the last seven budgets have left households slightly poorer than if supports had kept pace with wages. Additional actions include a cut to the carbon tax on home heating oil and gas, which ESRI criticises as untargeted, and a new €500 Cost of Disability payment for current disability recipients, which researchers say falls short of covering actual extra costs.
Why it matters
Child poverty affects long-term social outcomes, and the budget’s limited impact raises concerns about future inequality.
How the sides frame it
LOW AGREEMENTCenter coverage focuses on the ESRI’s assessment that the government’s budget measures will barely affect child poverty, while right-leaning coverage centers on a bipartisan bill to expand the refundable child tax credit and questions its lack of clear success metrics.
CENTER
Centrist coverage frames the story as a critique of the government’s budget, highlighting ESRI’s finding that proposed payments will not meaningfully reduce child poverty and suggesting a second-tier Child Benefit as a better solution.
RIGHT
Right-leaning coverage frames the story as an overview of a bipartisan tax-credit proposal, noting its potential benefits for low-earning families but emphasizing the absence of defined success metrics and doubts about lasting impact.
The right emphasises
- bipartisan bill seeks to expand refundable child tax credit
- bill does not define how success will be measured
- questions whether it will foster lasting financial security
In this story
