Estonia's incoming defense minister warns Russia could launch attack within a year

In a recent interview, Martin Herem, the designated defense minister of Estonia, warned that Russia might be prepared to employ military force against Estonia within approximately twelve months. He described a two-stage worst-case scenario: the war in Ukraine could cease within six months, followed by another half-year for Russia to rebuild its troops and materiel, reaching a level capable of a sizable operation against Estonia.

Herem argued that Estonia needs a definitive time frame to evaluate its defence posture and the urgency of procurement projects, and he questioned whether existing preparations could defeat such a force. He cited Russia’s high consumption of weapons in Ukraine, noting that a six-month replenishment could supply sufficient resources for an operation. While he has not set an official threat-assessment period, he will discuss the scenario with intelligence agencies to verify its realism.

Herem also criticized Estonia’s defence planning for not aligning concrete measures with the seriousness of the Russian threat, referencing NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutten’s warning of a potential NATO threat in a few years. Former defence minister Hanno Pevkur cautioned that intelligence assessments must remain independent of political pressure.