European intelligence warns Putin may test NATO with limited incursions within months

Several European security officials say Vladimir Putin may attempt a limited test of NATO’s resolve in the coming months. Michal Koudelka, head of the Czech security service BIS, said that Russia could conduct a modest incursion, false-flag provocations or a wide-reaching influence operation to create fear and uncertainty. In early September, Emil Græsholm, chief of Denmark’s PET, disclosed specific Russian sabotage plans aimed at the Danish defence sector.

Latvia’s security chief Normunds Mežviets reported no immediate signs of an attack but warned of more extensive Russian actions across Europe, while Sweden’s military intelligence chief Thomas Nilsson dismissed the notion of serious negotiations, calling it a bargaining tactic. Norwegian analysts believe Russia may also test Norway’s response, and a Finnish defence research institute report warns that by 2040 a full-scale NATO-Russia conflict is one of two plausible scenarios, potentially involving occupation of northern Norway and Svalbard. French President Emmanuel Macron has warned of an intensified Russian hybrid threat to Europe.