Experts warn Putin sees no near-term pressure to end Ukraine war

According to a Foreign Affairs piece by Michael Kimmage and Maria Lipman, President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to face sufficient political or military pressure to end Russia’s war in Ukraine in the near future. The conflict is causing clear economic problems, including stagnant growth, elevated inflation and interruptions to energy production and logistics from Ukrainian strikes. Despite heavy Russian casualties, the Kremlin has not turned these losses into strategic victories on the front lines.

The authors argue that Russia’s authoritarian structure insulates Putin from the political fallout of the war, with opposition suppressed and independent media largely expelled. A Levada Center poll from August 2026 shows almost two-thirds of respondents support moving toward peace negotiations, yet most oppose conceding to Ukraine or the West. Nonetheless, Putin is portrayed as viewing a drawn-out war as preferable to a peace deal that would be perceived as a loss, while Russia’s influence wanes in former Soviet states and reliance on China grows.