Export bans alone can't secure US dominance in the AI-China rivalry

Washington’s export bans may buy the United States some time, but the ultimate edge in the AI contest with China will depend on the ability to produce next-generation technologies. The authors argue that, similar to the Apollo era, the U.S. needs massive, coordinated public investment—exemplified by the CHIPS and Science Act’s $52.7 billion budget—for research, equipment, and talent pipelines. Although U.S. semiconductor firms now command a majority of global sales and are pouring billions into R&D, the nation remains dependent on an international supply chain.

China is rapidly building its own AI and chip ecosystem, with R&D expenditures climbing to about 2.68 percent of GDP and more than 600 universities offering AI majors, though quality and commercial outcomes are still uncertain. The piece recommends that export controls be narrowly focused and aligned with allies, while the federal government provides stable funding for basic research, advanced packaging, and workforce development, including predictable immigration pathways for top scientists.

Regional innovation hubs that connect universities, labs and manufacturers are urged, and partnerships with Japan, the Netherlands and other allies are deemed crucial for a durable strategy. In short, sustained investment in people and institutions, not trade restrictions, will determine future technological leadership.