ExxonMobil forecasts up to 3°C warming by 2050 due to continued coal use

In its yearly energy outlook, ExxonMobil projects that global warming could reach between 2.5 and 3 degrees Celsius by 2050, largely because coal use is expected to decline more slowly than anticipated. While many climate experts forecast such warming only by 2100, the Deutsche Meteorologische Gesellschaft and the Deutsche Physikalische Gesellschaft have already warned it could arrive by mid-century. Exxon points to continued coal reliance in China and parts of Asia as a key factor, noting that coal will still account for a notable share of the global energy mix.

The International Energy Agency recently reported a record-high coal consumption of 8.94 billion tonnes this year, a trend Exxon did not factor into its scenario. The company also revised its estimate of worldwide CO₂ emissions for 2050 upward to 27 billion tonnes, compared with its earlier figure of 27 billion tonnes. Researchers from Harvard University and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research highlighted that Exxon had accurately predicted warming trends decades ago but had downplayed the associated risks.